As college hockey inches closer and closer to the postseason, the fate of multiple teams is up in the air.  Each year, six conferences get automatic bids to the NCAA tournament with 10 at-large bids distributed via the Pairwise ranking system.

PairWise is a ranking system that compares teams based on their win percentage and record against common opponents, among other criteria, and is used to determine at-large bids for the NCAA men’s ice hockey tournament.

The top ten teams in the PairWise are all essentially locks to make the NCAA tournament (Boston College, Michigan State, Minnesota, Maine, Western Michigan, Providence, Connecticut, Boston University, Ohio State and Denver) regardless how they fare in their conference tournament.

Here are ten other teams who need some wins, and some luck, to earn a spot into one of four NCAA regionals in 2025 whether it be by an at-large bid due to PairWise position or through an auto-bid by winning their respective conference tournament. 

Penn State (18-12-4)
Current PairWise Position: 14

The Nittany Lions have been one of the hottest teams in college hockey as of late. They’ve gone toe to toe with squads like Michigan State and Minnesota but that simply isn’t enough to get them into NCAAs. Penn State needs to perform well at Michigan in the Big 10 playoffs to stay put in their current PairWise position, or slightly improve it, and they’ll have their fingers crossed for no upsets in other conference tournaments that would risk their position for an at-large bid since spot No. 14 is certainly not a safe one. 

Quinnipiac (22-10-2)
Current PairWise Position: 13 

Quinnipiac won the ECAC regular season title but they are desperately going to want to win their conference tournament too to make it into the NCAAs. Sitting at No. 13 in the PairWise is okay but to be truly safe the Bobcats need that tournament victory to get in since a loss to a team like Yale or RPI over the next week could potentially squash their hopes of an at-large regional bid. They need to be careful of other talented ECAC teams too, like Clarkson or Colgate, who could play spoiler and steal away that highly coveted auto-bid. 

UMass (18-12-4)
Current PairWise Position: 12

UMass is one of the safer teams on this list but it still means that the Minutemen need to continue to play well as Hockey East playoffs get going. Sitting at No. 12 is likely good enough to get in through an at-large bid but if things get extremely crazy in the playoffs for each conference and auto-bids were won by teams outside of the top 14 or so in the PairWise then the Minutemen could get themselves into a sticky situation. But - UMass plays a top-ranked team in Maine this weekend, and an upset victory over the Black Bears could potentially seal an at-large position if they’re able to pull it off (or better yet, a sweep). 

Arizona State (19-13-2)
Current PairWise Position: 16

The Sun Devils are not a team you want to run into right now. Arizona State has had a huge first season in the NCHC but it simply hasn’t been big enough to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament and it’s looking like the only way that the squad can make it in is through winning the NCHC Frozen Faceoff and securing an auto-bid to the regionals.

UMass-Lowell (15-13-4)
Current PairWise Position: 15

If the tournament was today, UMass-Lowell would not earn an at-large bid since all of the various auto-bids would bump them out of the tournament. To get into the NCAAs, the River Hawks either need to win the Hockey East conference tournament outright or at the very least they need to sweep New Hampshire this weekend and make a deep run into the Hockey East playoffs to move up from spot No. 15 to at the very minimum No. 14 and hope for teams like Penn State (No. 14) and Quinnipiac (No. 13) to lose the rest of their remaining games to boost the UML stock up a position or two. 

North Dakota (18-13-2)
Current PairWise Position: 18

Sitting at No. 18, there isn’t any hope for the Fighting Hawks to get into the NCAAs through an at-large bid. The good news for UND fans though is that the team has been playing well as of late and it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see NoDak push through to the Frozen Faceoff at the Xcel Energy Center in March and win an auto-bid from the conference tournament. 

Minnesota State (23-8-3)
Current PairWise Position: 17

The Mavericks are far and away the best team in the CCHA this year but they’ll still need to win their conference tournament in order to make the NCAAs. Sitting at No. 17 in the PairWise, even a sweep in the upcoming best-of-three series against Lake Superior State wouldn’t move them up enough to crack the top 14 or so teams that will earn an at-large bid so Minnesota State needs to be careful over the next two weeks to not allow any in-conference upsets or their postseason dreams will be over. 

Michigan (18-13-3)
Current PairWise Position: 11

Michigan is the safest team on this list and according to the Probability Matrix from College Hockey News, they have about an 85% chance to get into the NCAAs due to their high PairWise position at No. 11. That doesn’t mean that the Wolverines can just sit back and lose all of their Big 10 conference tournament games though. They’ll need to play well against Penn State this weekend to further secure their at-large position.

Sacred Heart (19-10-5)
Current PairWise Position: 21

No team in Atlantic Hockey will earn an at-large bid to the tournament this year, which means that only one squad will enter the NCAA regionals with the auto-bid from the conference tournament. Many people may think that Holy Cross will come out of the Atlantic tournament since they won the regular season title but the Pioneers are actually ranked higher in the PairWise than the Crusaders so there’s a good chance that they can secure that precious auto-bid for themselves. 

Clarkson (21-10-3)
Current PairWise Position: 19

It’ll be tough for anyone in the ECAC to defeat Quinnipiac and receive the conference auto-bid but Clarkson might be the team with the best shot to do just that. The Golden Knights finished second in the conference in regular season play and they are at No. 19 in the PairWise. Clarkson will be hoping for the Bobcats to get upset in the ECAC postseason bracket and will be attempting to play their best hockey of the year to earn that auto-bid to the regionals.