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Can the Irish do it again?

PWAA West Regional Preview

By frederick61, 02/25/15, 4:30PM CST

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Can the Irish win again?

In the West this year, it should be the Irish.  The West Regional is Rosemount’s domain this year.  The Irish are favored to win their bracket and to face Osseo/Maple Grove from the other bracket in Sunday’s championship game.  The Crimson will be tough.  OMG beat Rosemount in the Edina Invitational.  OMG can beat Rosemount again, but will likely have to get by D3 rival Wayzata to play the Irish.  Stillwater is the dark horse in the West.  The Ponies are playing well as the regular season ended.  Of the rest (Jefferson, Eastview, Hastings, and Rochester), they all have a shot to beat the loser of Sunday’s championship game in the final tourney elimination game Sunday evening. 


This shot led to an Osseo Maple Grove goal in their win over Rosemount at the Edina Invitational.

The West Regional has four teams that played in D2/D8 peewee AA league (Rosemount, Hastings, Stillwater, and Eastview).  Rosemount as the #1 seed draws #8 Hastings in their first game.  Rosemount beat Hastings 7-0 in the final game of the single elimination round last Saturday and went on to beat Eastview for the D8 playoff championship.  Hastings lost to Eastview and ended up taking third place.  Stillwater played in the D2 playoffs and took second place.  The Ponies will play Jefferson in their opening game.  Three teams in the West played in the D3/D6 Peewee AA league this season (Jefferson, Osseo/Maple Grove, and Wayzata).  The other two teams will play teams from other districts.  Besides Jefferson playing Stillwater, Osseo/Maple Grove will play Eastview, and Wayzata will Rochester (D9 or independent).

The West Regional would appear to be a D2/D8 based regional this year, but it is not.  The combined D3/D6 league has three teams in this regional.  Ten of the eleven teams that played in the D3/D6 league this season are playing in regional tourneys.  Three (Minneapolis, Eden Prairie, and Minnetonka) are playing in the South Regional; four (Edina, Prior Lake, Burnsville, and Chaska Chanhassen) are playing in the East Regional, and three (Jefferson, Osseo/Maple Grove, and Wayzata) are playing in the West Regional.  All ten D3/D6 teams are playing opening games against teams outside the D3/D6 league.

 

Peewee West Regional (all games at the Cottage Grove Ice Arena)
 Friday Feb 27  Saturday Feb 28   Sunday Feb 28  Team District and play  Comments
 (G1) 3:00 PM Hastings at Rosemount   (G5) 12:30 PM Winners G2 v G1  (G7) 11:00 AM Winners G5 v G6-Game 7 winner gets the East's #1 seed to state and will play the West's #2 seed in state tourney quarterfinals Rosemount is the #3 overall seed in the regionals and the #1 seed in the West Regional.  They were ranked #3 by YHH in the state.  Rosemount won the District 8 playoffs beating Hastings 7-0 prior to beating Eastview for the championship.  The Irish had a great season, winning the Eden Prairie Tourney at Thanksgiving and won third place at Edina  and at Roseau.  They should win their bracket and play Osseo/Maple Grove in the championship.  Rosemount has beaten Hastings three times this season.  In hockey, it is always tough to beat another team the more games that are played with that team.
     

 Hastings is ranked 26th by YHH and drew the #22 overall seed in the tourney.  They finished in the middle of the combined D2/D8 peewee AA league

 

 The Raiders had a good January/February going posting a 11-7-2 record, but draw D8 foe Rosemount in the regional opener.  They lost to the Irish a week ago in the D8 playoffs 7-0.  Hastings is a team that can play.  When their offense is on, they will score, but the Raider defense has been inconsistent.  
 (G2) 4:45 PM Jefferson at Stillwater   (G6) 10:45 AM Winners G4 v G3    Stillwater finished second in the D2/D8 peewee AA league behind Rosemount.  They finished second in the D2 playoffs behind White Bear Lake.  The Ponies are ranked #10 by YHH and draw the #10 seed overall for the regionals.  Stillwater won 11 straight games before losing to White Bear in the D2 playoff championship game.  Eight of the eleven teams they beat are in the regionals.  The Ponies lost to Jefferson 5-4 earlier this season.  This will be a good game, but a toss-up.  The outcome will be determined by how well the Pony defense stops the Jefferson offense.    
     (G13) 4:45 PM loser G7 plays winner G12.  Game 13 winner plays the North #1 seed in the state tourney quarterfinals  Jefferson finished fourth among D6 teams playing in D3/D6 peewee AA league this season and are ranked 14th by YHH.  The Jags were seeded #15 overall for the regionals.  The Jags won their Peewee AA Showdown tourney played after Christmas beating Hastings 9-2, Lakeville South twice 3-2 and 5-1, and Minnetonka in the championship game 5-2.  But Jefferson lost to Minnetonka two weeks ago 4-0 and tied Burnsville 4-4 a week ago.  Burnsville didn't make the Showdown finals.  The Jags defense needs to have a good tourney to advance.   
 (G3) 6:30 PM Eastview at Osseo/Maple Grove      Osseo/Maple Grove finished seventh in the combined D3/D6 league this season playing only 17 league games (most played 20 games).  They are ranked #7 by YHH and were seeded #4 overall in the regionals.    The Crimson had a great game against Rosemount in the Edina Invitational play New Year's weekend.  OMG had a game plan and they executed it beating the Irish 4-2 before losing to Edina in the championship game.  OMG is the favorite in this bracket.  They should beat Eastview.  They beat Wayzata 5-1 to finish second in the D3 playoffs.  But the Crimson also lost to Wayzata 3-1 in an earlier playoff game.  Still OMG is the favorite to win this bracket.
       Eastview is ranked #22 by YHH and were seeded #21 for the regionals.    Eastview is a stronger team this year.  They have size and can play well in streaks during a game.  The Lighning finished fourth in the combined D2/D8 Peewee AA league this season behind Rosemount, Stillwater, and White Bear Lake and lost to Rosemount 5-0 in the D8 playoff championship game.  Eastview will need defense and patience especially if OMG has their game plan going.
 (G4) 8:15 PM Rochester at Wayzata      Wayzata finished eight overall in the combined D3/D6 peewee AA league this season playing only 16 league games.  The Trojans are ranked #12 by YHH.  They were seeded #9 for the regionals.  Wayzata last five games including the D3 playoffs have all been against tough teams.  They posted a 2-2-1 record in those five games.  The Trojans seemed to be on the edge of a boom or a bust.  They have been a solid team all season, but can they win in this regional?   
       Rochester played as an independent this season and typically are considered District 9's #1 seed.  That whole idea is gone.  The #1 district seeds did not carry weight this year.  Rochester is ranked #16 by YHH and were seeded #16 in the regionals.  Rochester Red's defense fell apart at the Cloquet Barn Burner in their quarterfinal game (of a 16 team bracket play tourney) when they lost to the St. Paul Caps A team 9-3.  Since then they have gone 5-2-1 tying Prior Lake 0-0 and beating Mankato and Owatonna giving up 13 goals.  The Red's two losses were to Elk River 8-4 and Owatonna 2-0.  Rochester's defense will be key in this game.  The Red will be playing a quick team in Wayzata in another toss-up game.  
 Play Back Games  (G8) 9:00 AM Losers G1 v G2      
         
   (G9) 2:15 PM Losers G3 v G4      
         
   (G10) 5:30 PM Loser G6 v winner G8      
         
   (G11) 7:15 PM Loser G5 v winner G9  (G12) 9:15 AM Winners G10 v G11    
 Team eliminated   Four teams eliminated, losers G8, G9, G10, and G11  Two teams eliminated losers G11 and G12    
         
         
         
         
         
         
         

The table below is provided to the reader as snapshot of all the rankings and how they align in the West Regional.  The West Regional seeded teams are in the top row with #1 seeded Rosemount on the left and the #8 seeded Hastings on the right.  How these teams were seeded as a result of district playoffs is noted in the top row (for example, Rosemount was District 8’s #1 seed based on the Irish winning the D8 playoffs).  The second line shows the teams regional seed overall (Rosemount was the #3 seed overall) and the third line shows the teams' YHH ranking at the time of seeding (Rosemount is ranked #3 by YHH).  The YHH rankings were adjusted by removing the northern teams ranked since these teams are not part of the seeding.

The seedings and rankings line up fairly well with the top two teams and the bottom two teams shaking out as one would expect.  The four in the middle can be argued one way or another.  Any one of these four teams could compete with one of the other three.  The suggestion here would be after the initial seeding is made and the teams are aligned to region based on predetermined seeding, that there be a further look.  If the seeding generates a trend where one league has a chance to dominate play in all three regions (as the combined D3/D6 league has this year), then some thought be given to further adjusting regional play by moving these four teams around unless a six team D3/D6 tourney with two North Regional entries is desirable. 

West Seeding Versus YHH Ranking
 West Seed and Team #1 Rosemount (D8's #1 seed) #2 OMG (D3's #2 seed) #3 Wayzata (D3's #3 seed)  #4 Stillwater (D2's #2 seed)  #5 Jefferson (no D6 playoff, finished 5th in regular season play) #6 Rochester (played independent schedule)

#7 Eastview

(D8's #2 seed)

#8 Hastings (D8's #3 seed)  
 Regional Seed  #3  #4  #9  #10  #15  #14  #21  #22  
 YHH Rank  #3  #7  #10  #8  #12  #16  #18  #21  
comments     Adjust YHH up two (remove Cloquet and Moorhead) Adjust up two Adjust up two Adjust up two Adjust YHH up four (remove Grand Rapids and Moorhead Adjust YHH up five (remove Hermantown)